Old Love

From August 26, 2002 through July 5, 2004, Eric Gagne pitched the 9th inning of every Dodgers game to put out the opposing teams last offensive gasp, and never once failed. That streak of 84 consecutive saves streak was a stretch of domination not seen in Dodger blue since Orel Hershiser carried the 1988 Dodgers through the playoffs. From 2002 to 2004, no batter stood a chance against him.

Going to Dodger games then was like trying to observe a rare bird in the wild.
- He only appeared in certain situations, if the conditions were just right - in the 8th or 9th inning, if the team was ahead by 3 or less runs, to be the hammer that finished off the opponent's last gasp offense.
- When he did appear, it was with a flourish - the stadium's speakers boomed the first few notes to GnR's "Welcome to the Jungle," and 50,000+ would stand and cheer in unison as a fat man jogged from the outfield to the mound.
- You knew you were watching something special with each appearance - the nature of a streak that involves consecutiveness is that each attempt matches or exceeds the drama of the prior attempt before. Failure in any outing puts you back at square one. We shared in his history, validated his dominance with our cheers. It’s one thing to read in a newspaper that he had struck out three batters in order; it was another thing altogether to watch him befuddle major league baseball players, embarrassing them in ways they probably hadn’t experienced since little league.

For those years, he was far and away the city’s favorite Dodger. His last two years with the team were injury plagued, and he was never healthy enough to recapture the mojo from that streak. His contract ended last year, and this year he’s with another team (unfortunately, now on their disabled list). But in my mind, the magic from that streak has never dulled.

Then I read this over at Dodger Thoughts...

Is it to soon to wonder whether we'll remember Takashi Saito's Dodger career with the same joy - if perhaps not the same electricity - as Eric Gagne's?

Saito lowered his Dodger and MLB career ERA to 2.00, with 126 strikeouts in 94 1/3 innings. This season, he has struck out 19 and walked one.

And then there's that smile. Honestly, has the Dodger franchise ever enjoyed a better smile than Saito's? It really might be the greatest grin in this town since Magic's. With those stats, sliders and smiles, I look forward to seeing Saito more than any Dodger pitcher since Gagne.

I can’t agree that Saito’s surprising success has healed the loss of a fan favorite, a lonely bright spot in a span of seasons that bore few other successes. But he has helped us to forget, maybe quicker than any of us thought we would.

A brief statistical interlude, if I may. It’s hard to gauge which pitchers are better when compared side-by-side, because styles, ballpark dimensions and team defense vary. One statistic I like to use is ERA+, because it takes into consideration ballpark factors (e.g., Dodger Stadium is a great park for pitchers, Great Ameriquest Field in Arlington, TX heavily favors hitters) and the league average performance of pitchers to normalize their performances. An average pitcher would have an ERA+ of 100, so scores above and below 100 would be respectively above and below average performers for that year. First, look at Eric Gagne’s ERA+ from 2000 through 2006.
2000: 84
2001: 85
2002: 192
2003: 335 (!)
2004: 189
2005: 150 (injury shortened year)
In 2003, he won the Cy Young Award for the best pitcher in the National League. 2000 and 2001 were the years he was a starting pitcher, and he was a below average pitcher. When they moved him into the closer’s role in 2002, his performance skyrocketed. Now, compare these numbers to Takashi Saito’s numbers from the last two years as Gagne’s heir apparent.
2006: 222 (came in 8th place in Cy Young voting)
2007: 289
Saito’s number are downright outrageous for a guy who was an average pitcher in Japan for 12 years, was picked up off the scrap heap for pennies by the Dodgers, and then proceeded to mow down the competition. What are the odds after losing a once-in-a-lifetime relief pitcher, the Dodgers find a near equal value replacement, for a fraction of the price? It’s unheard of.

Stylistically, they’re very different pitchers. Gagne was power pitcher with deadly offspeed options that left the batters guessing, usually guessing wrong. He could throw a 96-98 mph fastball, but then could follow it up with a 78 mph Bugs Bunny changeup. Sprinkle in a mid 80s curveball and a slider, and he easily overpowered batters. On the other hand, Saito really only has one terrific pitch, his slider. It has great movement that makes batters swing and miss, but with a fastball that only tops out at about 92-94, he relies on his location and his wits to trick opposing hitters. While Gagne had freaskish talent and power, Saito has to outsmart the other side with what he lacks in physical tools. It’s hard to say that Saito’s only been getting by on smoke and mirrors, because the results have been so good for going on two years now. It feels like a fluke, like at some point his numbers from the Japanese league will catch up to him as batters see him a second time around. Or, maybe he’ll be like Gagne, and he just possesses some kind of killer instinct that shuts down the other side when they most need a hit.

Saito is truly great. His exuberance is a beacon on a team whose leadership is largely decaying and stoic (with a few exceptions). Few sportsmen have energized this plastic metropolis the way Eric Gagne used to. Saito doesn’t stick people in their seats the way Gagne did after the 7th inning, but you can’t argue with his results.

Dodger Update

Jon Weisman, my favorite Dodger scribe, posted his thoughts about the Dodgers' red hot start. I feel like I'm mirroring his cautious optimism.

You'll forgive some folks in Los Angeles if they're still a little gunshy about the Dodgers, the winningest team in the National League so far at 13-6. Two years ago, their team, just like this one, was 13-6 and leading the National League West, only to finish the year in disastrous 71-91, Jim Tracy- and Paul DePodesta-firing fashion.

The common assumption is that the 2007 Dodgers can suffer no similar collapse because they are deeper. Luis Gonzalez and Nomar Garciaparra have been producing, but many fans root for players like Matt Kemp and James Loney to rise from understudy status (see below). Meanwhile, strong Aprils by Mark Hendrickson and Brett Tomko have shown that the Dodgers can handle an injury to a starting pitcher (Jason Schmidt) before even asking promising youngsters like Chad Billingsley and the rehabilitating Hong-Chih Kuo to move into the rotation.

When Russell Martin hit a walkoff grand slam in the bottom of the 10th inning Saturday, an inning after the Dodgers scored the tying run on a walk, wild pitch, error and passed ball, you sensed that the opening scene of the "How They Reached October" highlights package was in the can.

But when Juan Pierre dropped a fly ball to center field Sunday, allowing the Pittsburgh Pirates to score their third run on their way to a 7-3 victory in Los Angeles, the rewrite team had its say. ...

I have no desire to get into a DePodesta argument today, but my feeling is that although the Dodgers are deeper this year thanks to the maturing farm system, this year's team could be in just as much trouble if the same number of injuries again hit the most critical personnel.

So much crashed down upon the Dodgers at once in 2005, it made the overall roster look worse than it was at the season's outset. After all, plenty of people, DePodesta fans or not, predicted that team to do well.

When you look at the '07 team, even with Mike Lieberthal as a backup, Martin appears almost indispensible - instrumental to the team's success. And no one truly knows what Kemp, Kuo, Billingsley, Loney or Andy LaRoche would do over a full season if forced to carry the load.

Are the Dodgers significantly better off at third base in 2007 than they were in 2005? Significantly better off in the outfield? I think these are fair questions.

Perhaps the pitcher's mound is the one place that this year's team seems in significantly better shape. But pitching is inherently unstable - the area most vulnerable to capricious injuries.

Personally, I'm optimistic about the 2007 Dodgers - but then again, I was optimistic in '05. Given that the 2006 team followed a midsummer 3-15 tailspin with a 17-1 reboot, all I know is this: One stretch of 18 or 19 games only sets the stage for the next.